Brett Roegiers, CNN • Updated 12th September 2017
( CNN ) — The Atlantic’s ideal time for a hurricane occurs around mid-July, with no previous record of an official Atlantic hurricane season beginning on June 1.
Below, CNN shows you how the research from atmospheric scientist Phil Klotzbach predicts the next season.
Since 1851, hurricane seasons in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have lasted from June 1 to November 30.
For seasonal forecasting — looking back at what has happened in recent years and charting the next season — Klotzbach says the best thing to look at is what has happened the past five years.
Records started in 1851, so historically the six years up to and including 2016 were relatively calm, with an average season peak of 19 named storms and 8 hurricanes — an average that has held steady for years.
Of those named storms, five made landfall in the United States.
Here’s how the scientists make their predictions.